Research

2024

1. "Exploring the impact of livestock on air quality: A deep dive into Ammonia and particulate matter in Lombardy."

   J. Lunghi, M. Malpede, and L.A. Reis

   Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 2024

   Abs Article Replication Codes

   The linkage between agricultural activities, particularly livestock farming, and atmospheric pollution is broadly acknowledged and its magnitude is widely analyzed. Lombardy, one of Europe’s most critical areas with regard to air pollution, has significantly large contributions from the farming industry. Although studies aimed at informing policy reflect uncertain and moderate pollution reduction even under simulated stringent policy scenarios, granular causal evidence at a sub-sector level remains insufficient to inform local and regional policies effectively. In this study, we employ a spatially and temporally indexed econometric model to investigate the specific impact of bovine and swine farming on the concentration levels of ammonia (NH3) and coarse particulate matter (PM10) in Lombardy’s atmosphere. Our findings indicate that an increase of 1000 units in livestock—equating to roughly a 1% and 0.3% rise in the average per-quadrant bovine and swine populations respectively—triggers a corresponding daily increase in NH3 and PM10 concentrations. These increases are quantified as 0.26 [0.22; 0.33] and 0.29 [0.27; 0.41] μg/m3 for bovines (about 2% and 1% of the respective daily averages) and 0.01 [0.01; 0.05] and 0.04 [0.004; 0.16] μg/m3 for swine. Notably, these impacts are intensified under northerly upwind conditions, minimizing the potential for concurrent pollution sources and reinforcing the robustness of our estimated impacts. Finally, we employ our findings to extrapolate the potential environmental implications of reducing livestock emissions. Our analysis suggests that bovine and swine farming could account for up to 25% of local pollution exposure, empathizing the need for targeted mitigation strategies.

2. "Impacts of agriculture on PM10 pollution and human health in the Lombardy region in Italy."

   S. Renna, J. Lunghi, F. Granella, and 2 more authors

   Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2024

   Abs Article

   Air pollution is one of the main environmental health concerns globally, of which particulate matter (PM) is the primary threat. While many policies address emissions from transport and industry, there is growing evidence of agriculture’s significant impact on air quality. We build on a recent study by Lonati and Cernuschi (2020) that analyzes spatial and temporal patterns characterizing ammonia concentrations in the populous Italian region of Lombardy and their influence on urban areas. Our work adds to the literature by extensively analyzing secondary inorganic aerosol patterns using the most recent and novel data and exploring the contribution of agriculture to air pollution and human health impacts. No prior study directly associates ammonium salts in PM with a health burden in Lombardy. We estimate that agriculture contributes to 43 deaths and 511 lost life years for every 100,000 residents annually in Lombardy. This research is crucial for local and regional policymakers, as it provides evidence of the impact of agricultural practices on air quality and public health. By demonstrating the significant role of agriculture in air pollution, our work supports the development of more effective environmental policies and strategies to improve air quality and safeguard public health in the region.

Ongoing

1. In Progress

   "A Spreading Malaise: Manure Management, Air Pollution, and Hospital Admissions in Italy." - JMP

   J. Lunghi

   Ongoing

   Presented: Econ 286 (UCSD); Brown Bag Seminar (RFF-CMCC EIEE); AERE 2024 Annual Summer Conference; EAERE 29th Annual Conference.

   Abs PDF

   Manure management is a widespread soil fertilization practice in agriculture. Yet, little is known about the environmental and health threats posed by manure application. I estimate the causal effect of manure spreading on fine particulate matter concentrations, as well as respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalisations, mortality rate at discharge, and medical treatment costs using air quality and hospital discharge data from the Lombardy region in Italy. I exploit exogenous variation in spreading prohibitions to design a repeated event-study framework. I estimate an increase of around 27% in PM2.5 concentrations in the five days following a ban lift, paired with an increase in urgent hospitalisations, and higher hospital mortality rate during spreading events. Conversely, it is found no significant difference in the cost per hospitalisation. I estimate the financial burden limited to this health threat to range between 30.9 and 67.7 million euros per year. Finally, I test the implications of a fully flexible regulatory framework to redistribute emissions over the winter calendar, estimating a reduction in days exhibiting harmful levels of PM between 13.1% and 3%.

2. Working Paper

   "Soil Aridification, Precipitations, and Infant Health: Evidence from Africa."

   J. Lunghi, M. Malpede, and M. Percoco

   GREEN Working Paper Nr. 23, Ongoing

   (Under review)

   Abs PDF

   This study shows how soil aridity (proxied with a measure of soil potential evapotranspiration) impacts child wellbeing in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using climate and infant health data from a grid of approximately 4,000 cells in 34 African countries, we find that infants born in arid areas are comparatively more likely to die under the age of 5 and be systematically underweight at birth. In addition, we show how the aridity measure in this study reduces the effect of rainfall on child wellbeing and how aridification drives substantial heterogeneity in the estimated response to increasing precipitation. The findings are combined with model projections of future climate conditions to emphasize the importance of accounting for aridity alongside precipitations when assessing the economic impact of climate.

3. Working Paper

   "Yet it Rains. Aridification, Agriculture and Farmers’ Adaptation in Sub-Saharan Africa."

   J. Lunghi, M. Malpede, and M. Percoco

   Ongoing

   Abs

   Although the relationship between climate and agriculture has been extensively studied, the present study explores how the often-overlooked phenomenon of soil aridity (proxied with a measure of soil evapotranspiration) impacts agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate conditions and crop yield measures are collected over a grid of 0.5° x 0.5° for 32 African countries. We find that areas with higher soil aridity suffer from lower agricultural productivity. We document that those results are partly due to farmers’ adaptation to changing climate conditions. Finally, we project how future climate conditions will affect agriculture in the African continent under different scenarios. The paper emphasizes the importance of accounting for aridity alongside precipitations when assessing the economic impact of climate change.

4. In Progress

   "Global Migration Response to Climate and Climate Change."

   G. Khanna, J. Lunghi, K. Ricke, and 1 more author

   Ongoing

   Presented: WEAI 98th Annual Conference
5. In Progress

   "Making America Great Again? CEO Political Ideology and Firm Procurement."

   J. Lunghi, and R. Vincenzi

   Ongoing
6. In Progress

   "Environmental shocks, expectations, and mobility: evidence from Thailand Vietnam Socioeconomic Panel."

   R. Hoffman, M. Kuhn, Y. Kulikova, and 1 more author

   Ongoing