Research

2024

1. "Exploring the impact of livestock on air quality: A deep dive into Ammonia and particulate matter in Lombardy."

   J. Lunghi, M. Malpede, and L.A. Reis

   Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 2024

   Abs Article Replication Codes

   The linkage between agricultural activities, particularly livestock farming, and atmospheric pollution is broadly acknowledged and its magnitude is widely analyzed. Lombardy, one of Europe’s most critical areas with regard to air pollution, has significantly large contributions from the farming industry. Although studies aimed at informing policy reflect uncertain and moderate pollution reduction even under simulated stringent policy scenarios, granular causal evidence at a sub-sector level remains insufficient to inform local and regional policies effectively. In this study, we employ a spatially and temporally indexed econometric model to investigate the specific impact of bovine and swine farming on the concentration levels of ammonia (NH3) and coarse particulate matter (PM10) in Lombardy’s atmosphere. Our findings indicate that an increase of 1000 units in livestock—equating to roughly a 1% and 0.3% rise in the average per-quadrant bovine and swine populations respectively—triggers a corresponding daily increase in NH3 and PM10 concentrations. These increases are quantified as 0.26 [0.22; 0.33] and 0.29 [0.27; 0.41] μg/m3 for bovines (about 2% and 1% of the respective daily averages) and 0.01 [0.01; 0.05] and 0.04 [0.004; 0.16] μg/m3 for swine. Notably, these impacts are intensified under northerly upwind conditions, minimizing the potential for concurrent pollution sources and reinforcing the robustness of our estimated impacts. Finally, we employ our findings to extrapolate the potential environmental implications of reducing livestock emissions. Our analysis suggests that bovine and swine farming could account for up to 25% of local pollution exposure, empathizing the need for targeted mitigation strategies.

2. "Impacts of agriculture on PM10 pollution and human health in the Lombardy region in Italy."

   S. Renna, J. Lunghi, F. Granella, and 2 more authors

   Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2024

   Abs Article

   Air pollution is one of the main environmental health concerns globally, of which particulate matter (PM) is the primary threat. While many policies address emissions from transport and industry, there is growing evidence of agriculture’s significant impact on air quality. We build on a recent study by Lonati and Cernuschi (2020) that analyzes spatial and temporal patterns characterizing ammonia concentrations in the populous Italian region of Lombardy and their influence on urban areas. Our work adds to the literature by extensively analyzing secondary inorganic aerosol patterns using the most recent and novel data and exploring the contribution of agriculture to air pollution and human health impacts. No prior study directly associates ammonium salts in PM with a health burden in Lombardy. We estimate that agriculture contributes to 43 deaths and 511 lost life years for every 100,000 residents annually in Lombardy. This research is crucial for local and regional policymakers, as it provides evidence of the impact of agricultural practices on air quality and public health. By demonstrating the significant role of agriculture in air pollution, our work supports the development of more effective environmental policies and strategies to improve air quality and safeguard public health in the region.

Ongoing

1. In Progress

   "A Spreading Malaise: Manure Management, Air Pollution, and Hospital Admissions in Italy." - JMP

   J. Lunghi

   Ongoing

   Presented: Econ 286 (UCSD); Brown Bag Seminar (RFF-CMCC EIEE); AERE 2024 Annual Summer Conference; EAERE 29th Annual Conference; Milan PhD Workshop 2024; IAERE 2025 (Young Environmental Economist Award winner).

   Abs

   Manure application is a widespread soil fertilization practice in agriculture which may constitute an environmental and public health hazard. Using air quality and hospital discharge data from the Lombardy region in Italy, I estimate the causal effect of manure spreading on fine particulate matter concentrations, and study how short-term increase in air pollution affects respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalisations, mortality rate at discharge, and medical treatment costs. I exploit exogenous variation in spreading prohibitions to isolate the impact of manure application, as a repeated event-study framework. I estimate an increase of around 27% in PM_2.5 concentrations in the five days following a ban lift, paired with an increase in urgent hospitalisations by a factor of 1.04 to 1.145, and higher hospital mortality rate (0.7 to 1 percentage points) during spreading events. Conversely, I find no significant difference in the cost per hospitalisation. I estimate the financial burden limited to this health threat to range between 30.9 and 67.7 million euros per year. I simulate the impact of including particulate matter targets in the current regulatory framework and find such policies reduce exposure to pollutants only marginally, calling for alternative actions to curb air pollution.

2. Working Paper

   "Soil Aridification, Precipitations, and Infant Health: Evidence from Africa."

   J. Lunghi, M. Malpede, and M. Percoco

   Ongoing

   (R&R at Global Environmental Change)

   Abs Article

   While research has studied the effects of climate variations on child nutrition, how soil aridification impacts child wellbeing is relatively understudied. Using climate and infant health data combined with an original measure of soil aridity, we show that infants born in arid areas are comparatively more likely to die under the age of 5 and be systematically underweight at birth. We also find that aridification deteriorates the positive association between rainfall and child health. Our findings emphasize the importance of accounting for aridity alongside precipitations when assessing the economic impact of climate.

3. In Progress

   "Street green space and electricity demand: evidence from metered consumption data."

   E. De Cian, G. Falchetta, and J. Lunghi

   Ongoing

   (R&R at Energy Economics)

   Abs

   Growing climate change impacts call for increasing efforts to adapt and reduce adverse consequences on society. However, adaptation is often costly for both governments and private citizens and it can itself determine additional impacts. A key example is air-conditioning for indoor air temperature regulation, which is often extremely energy-intensive. In this paper, we empirically evaluate the temperature regulation effect of street green space (SGS) and its impact on residential electricity demand. We exploit a monthly panel of household metered electricity demand data from 129,524 households located in 2,181 municipalities distributed across Italy in the period between 2020 and 2022. We find that SGS is an important regulating factor in the temperature-energy demand relation and SGS density has a strongly significant non-linear effect on the impact of temperature on household electricity demand. The most pronounced effect is a reduction in electricity consumption during hot temperatures. The observed moderating effects of SGS are heterogeneous, as they depend on the heat exposure level and the degree of urbanisation. We estimate that a policy aimed at bringing the municipality-level average GVI to at least 25 - a value currently at around the 75th percentile of the distribution in the municipalities covered by our analysis - would strongly contribute to counterbalancing the climate-change induced increase in residential electricity consumption, and hence private expenditure. Such policy would reduce by more than two third the growth in the summer-months residential electricity consumption driven by climate change (under RCP 8.5 climate conditions around 2050). This corresponds to a gross national-level private saving in energy bills of €0.17 billion per summer in year 2050. Our results provide new quantitative evidence of the benefits of green spaces for both energy demand reductions - supporting climate change mitigation -, and in terms of outdoor temperatures reduction, supporting climate change adaptation.

4. In Progress

   "Power Play: Balancing Efficiency and Protection in Fixed vs. Variable Electricity Pricing."

   J. Bonan, C. Cattaneo, G. D’Adda, and 1 more author

   Ongoing

   Presented: SEEDS Conference 2025, EAERE 30th Annual Conference, AWEEP Workshop 2025, MWEET Workshop 2025.

   Abs

   Fixed-term retail energy contracts shield end users from market fluctuations but can introduce market distortions by implicitly subsidizing consumption when prices rise. Using high-frequency consumption and billing data from a major Italian energy utility, we study consumer behavior following the default transition from fixed-price to indexed-price contracts, which occurred when initial fixed prices were substantially below wholesale levels. We find that electricity demand is relatively inelastic, with an average price elasticity of -0.12, but responsiveness increases over time. Households continue to reduce consumption more than eighteen months after the default, indicating a persistent lag in their adjustment to the price signal. The default also induces financial distress, increasing missed payments and installment bill plans. We show that fixed-price contracts have distributional implications, appearing regressive in absolute terms, but progressive relative to income. Efficiency losses from consumption distortions are more pronounced at the lower and upper ends of the income distribution.

5. In Progress

   "Global Migration Response to Climate and Climate Change."

   I. Grigoryeva, G. Khanna, J. Lunghi, and 3 more authors

   Ongoing

   Presented: WEAI 98th Annual Conference